2019 is finally here and the world’s nations, including China, face significant challenges. However, it will be a fair year for countries which are willing and able to collectively address those challenges.
Several institutions predict U.S. domestic affairs, the upcoming general election in India, and the volatility of global stock markets will all contribute to a rise in global uncertainty in 2019. The US-China trade war and whether the two nations will reach an agreement as scheduled is the biggest uncertainty.
After an unusual 2018, some foreign media outlets claim that for China, this year depends entirely on whether a comprehensive trade agreement can be made with the U.S. But does this analysis have any basis in reality?
Improving China-US relations, and the endorsement of a bilateral trade agreement are top priorities for China this year. On January 1, Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump exchanged congratulations on the 40th anniversary of the establishment of China-US diplomatic relations. The New Year’s Day exchange continued the positive steps made in their relationship following a phone conversation between the two leaders shortly before the end of the year.
The ground for resolving the dispute is now the most fertile it has been since the escalation of the China-US trade disagreement.
On the other hand, certain major ambiguities in China-US ties still persist. Will the trade agreement, if reached, signify absolute stabilization of China-US economic cooperation? Even if China-US trade is relatively stable, will US technological restrictions on China be expanded? Will Washington continue to exert geopolitical pressures on Beijing?
The complexity of China-US ties transcends that of any relationship between great powers seen throughout human history. The most effective tool of communication should be diplomacy. In order to have a long-lasting influence on relations, China must manage its own affairs better.
China must remain dedicated to reform and opening-up and speed up the modernization of its national governance system and capabilities. Once Beijing and Washington come to an agreement, China needs to be more open to meet the renewed conditions.
What concerns global observers is the possibility that China and the U.S. do not reach an agreement within 90 days, and with good reason. The possibility that China would have no choice but to strive for development by exploring internal driving forces, effectively rendering any pressure from the US irrelevant must not be overlooked.
The Chinese people must be aware that the country has already bid farewell to the era when Beijing’s decisions were defined by the whims of international pressure.
To what extent Beijing makes the necessary adjustments will be the first factor in showing whether China will maintain a steady path.
In other words, China should constantly implement the reform and opening-up decisions made after the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee in 2013, regardless of external pressure.
In the face of the sudden escalation of China-US trade conflict throughout 2018, Beijing chose neither a concession nor a confrontation. The country has continued advancing and establishing its position as the world’s second-largest economy, maximizing its vitality and cooperation. Undoubtedly, that is China’s lifeline to keep steady progress in an increasingly restless world.
