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South Sudan is witnessing heightened political and security tensions that threaten the stability of the 2018 peace agreement between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar.

Violence in South Sudan

The recent arrests of key officials from the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO), including the petroleum minister and the deputy head of the army, have raised concerns. Hence, on March 18, 2025, the SPLM-IO suspended its participation in crucial security arrangements of the peace deal in response. Oyet Nathaniel Pierino, deputy chairman of the SPLM-IO, remarked, “The ongoing political witch-hunts continue to threaten the very essence and the existence of the [peace deal].”

First Vice President Riek Machar expressed deep concern over the recent developments, emphasizing that such actions undermine the progress made in implementing the peace agreement. He called for the immediate release of detained officials and urged all parties to recommit to the terms of the accord to ensure lasting peace and stability in South Sudan.

South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir also fired Upper Nile state Governor James Odhok Oyay, amid escalating clashes between government forces and an ethnic militia.

Kiir appointed General James Koang Chuol, as Upper Nile’s new governor.

“As the Governor takes up his duties, the country’s attention remains in Upper Nile, desperately seeking a restoration of peace and harmony amongst the local population.”

The dismissal followed the White Army militia’s capture of the town of Nasir near the Ethiopian border, leading to the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF)’s evacuation of the town.

The government accused SPLM-IO of ties to the White Army, a Nuer militia that fought alongside Machar in the 2013-2018 conflict. The party denied the claim.

South Sudan-Uganda security pact

In a bid to address cross-border insecurity, South Sudan and Uganda have entered into a security agreement focusing on joint management of security along their shared border.

“We are playing a support role but really, the lead formations are the government of South Sudan’s army,” Chris Magezi, Uganda’s Acting Defence Public Information Officer said.

The pact aims to eliminate barriers to the free movement of people, goods, and services, facilitate the movement of refugees, and enhance collaboration between security agencies to curb illegal activities such as smuggling and cattle rustling. The agreement also emphasizes adherence to human rights and protection policies.

Tumaini Peace Initiative

The Tumaini Peace Initiative, a key facilitator of dialogue and reconciliation in South Sudan, has adjourned its meeting until March. The agenda includes discussions on the current political impasse, strategies to reinforce the implementation of the peace agreement, and measures to address the humanitarian crisis resulting from recent clashes. The initiative aims to bring together all stakeholders to foster dialogue and find sustainable solutions to the ongoing challenges.

UN Warnings

Nicholas Haysom, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNMISS, warned of a potential relapse into civil war, stating that recent political and security crises could undermine the 2018 peace agreement.

“We need to look no further than across the northern border to Sudan for a stark reminder of how quickly countries can descend into catastrophic war. To avoid this outcome in South Sudan, there must be an immediate return by the parties to consensus-based decision-making. There must be intensive dialogue to resolve grievances and rebuild trust and confidence between the Parties and, between the parties and their supporters.”

The recent developments in South Sudan underscore the fragility of the nation’s peace process. Germany temporarily closed its embassy in South Sudan’s capital, Juba, citing rising tensions that have pushed the country to the brink of civil war, the foreign ministry said Saturday.

The international community continues to monitor the situation closely, urging all parties to engage in constructive dialogue and adhere to the terms of the peace agreement to prevent further escalation and ensure stability in the region.

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UN envoy calls for urgent measures to de-escalate tensions in South Sudan