South Sudan leaders face pressure to salvage fragile peace as Tumaini talks resume
South Sudan’s transitional government is under pressure to reaffirm its commitment to the 2018 peace deal.
With elections scheduled for 2026, international and regional actors want President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar to prevent further destabilization.
The Tumaini Peace Initiative resumes in Nairobi late this month. The talks, which were postponed for a third time in February, come amid renewed violence in Upper Nile State and rising political tensions in Juba. The African Union and United Nations warn that the country risks slipping back into full-scale conflict unless South Sudan’s leaders take steps to resolve disputes over security arrangements and political inclusivity.
South Sudan’s civil conflict started in 2013. More than 400,000 people are dead as a result.
Security and political tensions escalate
Fighting in the northeastern Upper Nile region has continued for weeks, with government forces clashing against the White Army militia, which authorities claim has links to Machar’s Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition (SPLM-IO).
In a tragic incident, a United Nations helicopter on a mission to evacuate members of the national army was attacked, resulting in the death of a crew member and injuries to two others.
“The government which I lead will handle this crisis. We will remain steadfast in the path of peace,” South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir said.
The violence has raised concerns over the effectiveness of the peace deal’s security provisions, with analysts warning that unresolved military integration issues remain a flashpoint.
Tensions remain high in Juba following the arrests and subsequent release of several senior officials allied with Machar last week. While the government has defended the detentions, Machar’s camp has accused Kiir’s administration of violating the peace agreement and undermining power-sharing arrangements.
First Vice President Riek Machar’s office released a statement condemning the “barbaric act”, stating that efforts to “restore peace in the region remain a top priority,” with Machar “continuing to engage all stakeholders to prevent further violence.”
“The fragile peace that has maintained a delicate balance among competing armed leaders since 2018 is at risk of collapsing,” Daniel Akech Thiong, senior analyst on South Sudan at the International Crisis Group told Reuters.
Tumaini talks face critical test
The Tumaini Peace Initiative was launched in May 2024 and was designed to integrate holdout opposition groups into South Sudan’s transitional framework. However, the process has been marred by delays and disagreements. The February postponement further strained negotiations, raising doubts about the initiative’s effectiveness.
“South Sudan is slipping rapidly toward full-blown war,” said the International Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director, Alan Boswell, “we fear large-scale ethnic massacres if the situation is not soon contained.”
As preparations for the March session continue, mediators say the talks must address key unresolved issues, including security sector reforms and political representation.
“The president has given us clear directives that we should come back with peace in our hands. I think this is an important directive, and those of us who are going to negotiate and speak to our brothers will make sure that we address matters that we are different on in a manner that attracts confidence and attitude of peace building,” South Sudan’s Cabinet Affairs Minister, Martin Elia Lomurö said.
Regional and international pressure mounts
The African Union and Intergovernmental Authority on Development, which brokered the 2018 peace deal, have intensified diplomatic efforts to prevent further deterioration.
The United Nations-African Union Joint Task Force on Peace and Security emphasized the urgency of coordinated diplomatic efforts to end the conflict and support the peace process.
Additionally, a UN rights body highlighted the alarming pace at which the situation is worsening, underscoring the potential for renewed widespread violence.
“We are witnessing an alarming regression that could erase years of hard-won progress. Rather than fueling division and conflict, leaders must urgently refocus on the peace process, uphold the human rights of South Sudanese citizens, and ensure a smooth transition to democracy,” Yasmin Sooka, chairperson of the UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan, said in a statement.
